Need a full-time job? Move to Victoria
‘Not only is Victoria beating the rest of the nation for full-time employment creation, it is beating its own history’ says Greg Jericho.
The latest labour force figures are a mixture of “Hmmm that’s not real flash”, and “OMG that is amazing”. But while some of the news about the creation of full-time employment deserved being excited about, the figures highlighted that the amount of joy you feel about the economy is very much dependent upon where you live.
In June the unemployment rate rose to 5.8% in seasonally adjusted terms, and stayed steady at 5.7% in trend terms. The big news, however, was that the employment growth in seasonally adjusted terms was all in full-time employment – increasing by 38,400 while part-time employment fell by 30,600.
This was very good news given my golden rule for employment figures is that full-time employment growth reveals the true strength of the economy. But given my second rule of employment figures is to trust the trend and treat the seasonally adjusted figures with suspicion, the news was less great.
I’m not sure why anyone would get too carried away with the monthly change in full-time employment in seasonally adjusted terms. About the only reason to follow it closely is if you had just chosen to give up caffeine and you needed a new stimulant.
A quick look at the change in full-time employment in both seasonally adjusted and trend shows how analysis of the seasonally adjusted figures pretty much involves coming up with synonyms for “erratic”:
Up 18,600; down 43,900; up 11,000; down 7,700; down 19,300; up 2,500; up 38,400.
The past seven months has seen an average move of 20,100 positions each month (either up or down) and ends up with a whole 400 fewer people in full-time employment than there was in November last year.
Trust the trend, and keep your heart palpitations to a minimum.
In trend terms, 705 full-time employment position were added in June – which doesn’t sound like a lot (it isn’t – a mere 0.01% increase) but it was the first increase in full-time employment in trend terms since January
The interesting thing about full-time employment is where it is coming from. Right now, if you are after full-time work, head to Victoria. To read more click here.
The 2016 Australian Long-Term Unemployment Conference; Finding Solutions will be held on the 1-2 December 2016, at the Mercure in Brisbane. To register for the Conference CLICK HERE.
The conference theme focuses on industry working together with employment agencies to create positive outcomes for Australia’s long-term unemployed.
Authors or organisations interested in presenting at the 2016 Australian Long-Term Unemployment Conference are invited to submit a 300 word abstract. To submit an abstract CLICK HERE. Abstracts close 11th August.
Combining practical examples, theory, research and best practice this conference elevates the dialogue to include businesses, not-for-profits, Government agencies, human resource professionals, social security services and industrial relations advocates.